Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sun Devils @ Horned Frogs ASU @ TCU

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

14-13  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 9:00 PM ET
Schollmaier Arena
View Odds Details →

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

17-10  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
HORNED FROGS
0%
SUN DEVILS --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (TCU)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

46.0%

Horned Frogs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

ASU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

13.7%

TCU By 1-7 points

26.2%

TCU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
78
ARIZONA STATE
79
TCU
Simulated Score
72
ARIZONA STATE
75
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Horned Frogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Horned Frogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 ASU @ TCU 78 - 90
Feb 15, 2025 TCU @ ASU 74 - 70
Dec 16, 2023 ASU @ TCU 59 - 79
Mar 17, 2023 ASU @ TCU 70 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.8% more
TCU: 11.6 vs Arizona State: 10.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
TCU: 37.3 vs Arizona State: 32.6
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
TCU: 9.0 vs Arizona State: 8.0
Blocks (L5) +9.9% more
Arizona State: 3.7 vs TCU: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 78.0 78
TCU Score 79.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 32.2 35.0 / 25.0
Assists 12.9 / 12.2 22.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.7 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.9 / 43.1 42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 67.8 / 77.1 70.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 32.6 40.0 / 34.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.0 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 10.1 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TCU
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ASU
TCU
ASU
ML
74% 26-9
52% 17-16
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
ATS
74% 26-9
52% 17-16
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
TTL
66% 23-12
64% 21-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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