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MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

21-6  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 9:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

14-13  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
HURRICANES --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Florida State)
HurricanesMIA (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

30.9%

Seminoles Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

MIA By 1-7 points

18.6%

MIA By 8-14 points

8.0%

FSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

FSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MIAMI
75
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
68
MIAMI
72
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 MIA @ FSU 83 - 73
Jan 20, 2026 FSU @ MIA 65 - 63
Feb 19, 2025 MIA @ FSU 66 - 74
Jan 8, 2025 FSU @ MIA 80 - 65
Mar 9, 2024 MIA @ FSU 75 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +93.7% more
Florida State: 4.6 vs Miami: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Florida State: 78.5% vs Miami: 72.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Florida State: 37.3% vs Miami: 34.1%
Steals (L5) +29.5% more
Miami: 7.2 vs Florida State: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 70.0 83
FSU Score 75.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 34.1 29.0 / 43.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.4 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.4 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 47.8 46.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 72.9 69.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 34.7 23.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.2 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 9.6 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
MIA
FSU
MIA
ML
64% 21-12
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
ATS
55% 18-15
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
TTL
48% 16-17
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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