ARIZONA
WILDCATSARIZ
25-2 | Road
87
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
14-13 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
BEARS
0%
WILDCATS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Baylor)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)
ARIZ By 1-7 points
9.3%
ARIZ By 8-14 points
2.7%
BAY By 1-7 points
21.6%
BAY By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
67
ARIZONA
Baylor
78
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Arizona
74
ARIZONA
Baylor
77
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
ARIZ @ BAY
87 - 80
Feb 17, 2025
ARIZ @ BAY
74 - 67
Jan 14, 2025
BAY @ ARIZ
70 - 81
Dec 7, 2019
ARIZ @ BAY
58 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+61.9% more
Baylor: 13.3
vs
Arizona: 8.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Baylor: 47.7%
vs
Arizona: 45.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+22.2% more
Arizona: 40.9
vs
Baylor: 31.8
Steals (L5)
+12.4% more
Arizona: 8.0
vs
Baylor: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score
67.0
87
BAY Score
78.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 31.0
32.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.7 / 13.4
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 45.3
49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
65.3 / 67.2
71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 40.9
30.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.0
2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 8.2
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
Advantage
36-3-0
(92.3%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
Advantage
23-15-1
(60.5%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
ARIZ
BAY
ARIZ
ML
58%
19-14
67%
26-13
53%
17-15
68%
23-11
ATS
58%
19-14
74%
29-10
53%
17-15
68%
23-11
TTL
45%
15-18
56%
22-17
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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