Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Billikens @ Flyers SLU @ DAY

SAINT LOUIS

BILLIKENSSLU

25-2  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

18-9  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BILLIKENS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
BILLIKENS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Dayton)
BillikensSLU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Billikens Cover

42.1%

Flyers Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

SLU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SLU By 8-14 points

12.2%

DAY By 1-7 points

26.8%

DAY By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
72
SAINT LOUIS
74
DAYTON
Simulated Score
70
SAINT LOUIS
78
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 DAY @ SLU 70 - 69
Feb 24, 2026 SLU @ DAY 62 - 77
Jan 30, 2026 DAY @ SLU 71 - 102
Mar 4, 2025 SLU @ DAY 67 - 75
Jan 31, 2025 DAY @ SLU 71 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.0%
Dayton: 73.6% vs Saint Louis: 65.6%
Steals (L5) +25.8% more
Saint Louis: 8.6 vs Dayton: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
Saint Louis: 14.8 vs Dayton: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Saint Louis: 39.7 vs Dayton: 33.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SLU Score 72.0 62
DAY Score 74.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 42.0 40.0 / 24.0
Assists 15.0 / 16.8 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.2 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 50.2 47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 65.6 75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 39.7 30.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.4 / 8.6 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 14.8 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SLU Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
DAY
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SLU Advantage
19-13-2 (59.4%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SLU
18-16-0
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1% Total +/-: -0.3
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
SLU
DAY
SLU
ML
65% 24-13
70% 23-10
64% 23-13
68% 21-10
ATS
68% 25-12
73% 24-9
64% 23-13
68% 21-10
TTL
57% 21-16
61% 20-13
100% 36-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 3 minutes ago
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 5 hours, 58 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 6 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 49 minutes ago