Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolfpack @ Cavaliers NCSU @ UVA

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

19-8  |  Road

61
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

24-3  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
WOLFPACK --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Virginia)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

46.0%

Cavaliers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

NCSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UVA By 1-7 points

26.2%

UVA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
80
NC STATE
81
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
64
NC STATE
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 NCSU @ UVA 74 - 81
Feb 24, 2026 NCSU @ UVA 61 - 90
Jan 3, 2026 UVA @ NCSU 76 - 61
Dec 31, 2024 NCSU @ UVA 67 - 70
Mar 15, 2024 NCSU @ UVA 73 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +76.1% more
Virginia: 6.9 vs NC State: 3.9
Turnovers (L5) +45.1% more
Virginia: 11.2 vs NC State: 7.7
Assists (L5) +27.5% more
Virginia: 17.1 vs NC State: 13.4
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Virginia: 37.5 vs NC State: 33.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 80.0 61
UVA Score 81.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 38.8 46.0 / 27.0
Assists 17.1 / 13.4 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 6.9 / 3.9 12.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 47.6 53.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 76.8 89.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 33.0 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 7.7 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
UVA Advantage
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
NCSU
UVA
NCSU
ML
67% 24-12
59% 20-14
72% 26-10
55% 18-15
ATS
75% 27-9
71% 24-10
72% 26-10
55% 18-15
TTL
53% 19-17
71% 24-10
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 6 hours ago
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
headtopics 4 days, 18 hours ago
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…
si 4 days, 18 hours ago
WVU Lands Major Eligibility Boost: Lorient and Buchanan Cleared …
si 1 week, 1 day ago