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DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

25-2  |  Road

100
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

12-15  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
0%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
BLUE DEVILS --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+16.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

5.5%

Fighting Irish Cover

94.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND +16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

DUKE By 1-7 points

13.7%

DUKE By 8-14 points

24.3%

ND By 1-7 points

4.0%

ND By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
91
DUKE
75
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
77
DUKE
68
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 DUKE @ ND 100 - 56
Jan 11, 2025 ND @ DUKE 78 - 86
Feb 7, 2024 ND @ DUKE 53 - 71
Jan 6, 2024 DUKE @ ND 67 - 59
Feb 14, 2023 ND @ DUKE 64 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.5% more
Duke: 17.1 vs Notre Dame: 13.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Duke: 70.1% vs Notre Dame: 63.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Duke: 50.2% vs Notre Dame: 44.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Duke: 39.2% vs Notre Dame: 35.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 91.0 100
ND Score 75.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 39.2 27.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.9 / 17.1 9.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.1 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 50.2 37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 63.2 / 70.1 58.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 38.9 27.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.4 1.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 9.1 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
DUKE
ND
DUKE
ML
65% 20-11
71% 27-11
77% 24-7
73% 24-9
ATS
55% 17-14
79% 30-8
77% 24-7
73% 24-9
TTL
68% 21-10
47% 18-20
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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