Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Huskies @ Rockets NIU @ TOL

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

HUSKIESNIU

9-17  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Savage Arena
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

14-13  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
HUSKIES --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Toledo)
HuskiesNIU (-3.5) 0 RocketsTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Huskies Cover

0.8%

Rockets Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

NIU By 1-7 points

0.6%

NIU By 8-14 points

0.1%

TOL By 1-7 points

4.0%

TOL By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
53
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
77
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
69
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 NIU @ TOL 69 - 79
Jan 6, 2026 TOL @ NIU 75 - 61
Feb 1, 2025 NIU @ TOL 85 - 89
Feb 27, 2024 NIU @ TOL 75 - 72
Jan 23, 2024 TOL @ NIU 89 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +62.8% more
Toledo: 7.7 vs Northern Illinois: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +53.7% more
Toledo: 3.4 vs Northern Illinois: 2.2
Field Goal % (L5) +11.0%
Toledo: 53.9% vs Northern Illinois: 43.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +10.6%
Toledo: 70.3% vs Northern Illinois: 59.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 53.0 69
TOL Score 77.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 38.0 41.0 / 22.0
Assists 15.8 / 14.3 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.2 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 53.9 / 43.0 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 59.7 86.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 32.3 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.7 / 4.7 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 14.5 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -4.8
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
NIU
TOL
NIU
ML
48% 16-17
67% 20-10
61% 20-13
66% 19-10
ATS
48% 16-17
63% 19-11
61% 20-13
66% 19-10
TTL
64% 21-12
67% 20-10
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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