Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Grizzlies SAC @ MEM

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-46  |  Road

123
FINAL
Mon, Feb 23 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

21-34  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
KINGS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Memphis)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

46.0%

Grizzlies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

SAC By 1-7 points

24.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

13.7%

MEM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
119
SACRAMENTO
120
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
109
SACRAMENTO
116
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.2% more
Memphis: 13.6 vs Sacramento: 9.5
Blocks (L5) +17.7% more
Memphis: 5.6 vs Sacramento: 4.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
Memphis: 36.1% vs Sacramento: 27.4%
Assists (L5) +8.2% more
Memphis: 28.6 vs Sacramento: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 119.0 123
MEM Score 120.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 27.4 35.0 / 34.0
Assists 28.6 / 26.4 33.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.6 / 4.7 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 43.0 48.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 83.3 90.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 41.9 37.0 / 45.0
Steals 13.6 / 9.5 13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 14.6 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SAC
MEM
SAC
ML
57% 59-44
55% 55-45
50% 41-41
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38
54% 52-45-3
50% 41-41
61% 50-32
TTL
70% 71-31-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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