SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
40-16 | Road
114
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
42-13 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
PISTONS
0%
SPURS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
SA By 1-7 points
10.7%
SA By 8-14 points
3.3%
DET By 1-7 points
23.0%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
121
SAN ANTONIO
Detroit
131
DETROIT
Simulated Score
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (-1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.0
Loss
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim
u232.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
DET @ SA
106 - 121
Feb 23, 2026
SA @ DET
114 - 103
Mar 25, 2025
SA @ DET
96 - 122
Feb 21, 2025
DET @ SA
125 - 110
Apr 14, 2024
DET @ SA
95 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+63.7% more
Detroit: 10.8
vs
San Antonio: 6.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Detroit: 39.8%
vs
San Antonio: 35.4%
Blocks (L5)
+9.0% more
San Antonio: 6.9
vs
Detroit: 6.3
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
San Antonio: 31.9
vs
Detroit: 29.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
121.0
114
DET Score
131.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 35.4
19.0 / 45.0
Assists
29.1 / 31.9
21.0 / 32.0
Blocks
6.3 / 6.9
8.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 52.9
38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 81.2
84.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 48.1
55.0 / 50.0
Steals
10.8 / 6.6
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 14.5
16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DET
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SA
DET
SA
ML
55%
64-53
60%
111-73
49%
47-49
58%
61-44
ATS
53%
60-54-3
58%
107-76-1
49%
47-49
58%
61-44
TTL
60%
70-46-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
96-0
100%
105-0
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