INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
11-17 | Road
49
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
9-19 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
DEMONS
0%
CARDINALS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Northwestern State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NWST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
UIW By 1-7 points
20.1%
UIW By 8-14 points
9.3%
NWST By 1-7 points
27.4%
NWST By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Incarnate Word
74
INCARNATE WORD
Northwestern State
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
Incarnate Word
69
INCARNATE WORD
Northwestern State
75
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Demons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Demons (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 23, 2026
UIW @ NWST
49 - 54
Jan 17, 2026
NWST @ UIW
74 - 76
Mar 3, 2025
UIW @ NWST
57 - 73
Dec 5, 2024
NWST @ UIW
72 - 70
Feb 17, 2024
NWST @ UIW
81 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+118.1% more
Northwestern State: 2.5
vs
Incarnate Word: 1.2
Steals (L5)
+39.6% more
Northwestern State: 5.5
vs
Incarnate Word: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
Incarnate Word: 12.2
vs
Northwestern State: 9.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.4%
Incarnate Word: 40.4%
vs
Northwestern State: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UIW Score
74.0
49
NWST Score
78.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 40.4
29.0 / 26.0
Assists
9.9 / 12.2
7.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.5 / 1.2
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 44.8
37.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 84.3
74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 33.0
33.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.5 / 3.9
2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 10.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
UIW
NWST
UIW
ML
68%
21-10
47%
14-16
77%
23-7
76%
22-7
ATS
68%
21-10
53%
16-14
77%
23-7
77%
23-7
TTL
39%
12-19
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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