Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vaqueros @ Cowboys RGV @ MCN

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

16-12  |  Road

68
FINAL
Mon, Feb 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Townsley Law Arena
View Odds Details →

MCNEESE

COWBOYSMCN

23-5  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
VAQUEROS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
VaquerosRGV (-3.5) 0 CowboysMCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vaqueros Cover

34.5%

Cowboys Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MCN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)

RGV By 1-7 points

27.4%

RGV By 8-14 points

21.6%

MCN By 1-7 points

20.1%

MCN By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
78
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
74
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
68
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
75
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vaqueros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 RGV @ MCN 80 - 84
Feb 23, 2026 RGV @ MCN 68 - 75
Jan 17, 2026 MCN @ RGV 76 - 79
Feb 24, 2025 RGV @ MCN 65 - 100
Jan 25, 2025 MCN @ RGV 93 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.7% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 18.0 vs McNeese: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 9.7 vs McNeese: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5) +14.9%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 84.2% vs McNeese: 69.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 40.9% vs McNeese: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RGV Score 78.0 68
MCN Score 74.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 40.9 22.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.8 / 18.0 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.9 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 50.3 43.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 84.2 72.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 32.5 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.9 / 4.3 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 9.7 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
MCN Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
MCN
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
RGV
MCN
RGV
ML
67% 22-11
53% 16-14
88% 28-4
54% 15-13
ATS
76% 25-8
53% 16-14
88% 28-4
54% 15-13
TTL
42% 14-19
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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