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NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

11-17  |  Road

53
FINAL
Mon, Feb 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Montagne Center
View Odds Details →

LAMAR

CARDINALSLAM

12-16  |  Home

52
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
COLONELS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ColonelsNICH (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

42.1%

Cardinals Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAM +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)

NICH By 1-7 points

26.8%

NICH By 8-14 points

18.6%

LAM By 1-7 points

23.0%

LAM By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NICHOLLS
67
LAMAR
Simulated Score
72
NICHOLLS
75
LAMAR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colonels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 NICH @ LAM 53 - 52
Jan 17, 2026 LAM @ NICH 90 - 80
Mar 11, 2025 NICH @ LAM 55 - 58
Mar 3, 2025 NICH @ LAM 53 - 65
Jan 20, 2025 LAM @ NICH 78 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.0% more
Nicholls: 6.0 vs Lamar: 4.0
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Nicholls: 72.1% vs Lamar: 63.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.4%
Nicholls: 49.3% vs Lamar: 40.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Nicholls: 39.6% vs Lamar: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 69.0 53
LAM Score 67.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 39.6 17.0 / 18.0
Assists 14.7 / 13.9 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.0 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 49.3 36.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 63.1 / 72.1 73.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 27.6 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.0 / 6.0 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.5 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
LAM
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
LAM
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAM
NICH
LAM
NICH
ML
55% 16-13
53% 17-15
59% 17-12
68% 19-9
ATS
52% 15-14
47% 15-17
60% 18-12
68% 19-9
TTL
72% 21-8
56% 18-14
100% 30-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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