Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Suns POR @ PHX

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

27-30  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Mortgage Matchup Center
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

33-24  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

65.5%

Suns Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

27.4%

POR By 8-14 points

21.6%

PHX By 1-7 points

20.1%

PHX By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
119
PORTLAND
115
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
107
PORTLAND
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o222.5 Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 14, 2026 POR @ PHX 114 - 110
Feb 22, 2026 POR @ PHX 92 - 77
Feb 3, 2026 PHX @ POR 130 - 125
Nov 18, 2025 PHX @ POR 127 - 110
Feb 3, 2025 PHX @ POR 119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.6% more
Portland: 19.9 vs Phoenix: 11.6
Blocks (L5) +29.9% more
Portland: 5.5 vs Phoenix: 3.8
Assists (L5) +13.1% more
Portland: 26.6 vs Phoenix: 23.1
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Portland: 45.6% vs Phoenix: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 119.0 92
PHX Score 115.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 36.1 26.0 / 27.0
Assists 23.1 / 26.6 16.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.5 3.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 45.6 36.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 71.8 100.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 51.0 / 45.4 41.0 / 47.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.1 14.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 19.9 23.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
POR
PHX
POR
ML
57% 60-45
53% 56-49
51% 45-43
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 59-43-3
62% 65-39-1
51% 45-43
55% 49-40
TTL
59% 61-42-2
56% 58-46-1
100% 88-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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