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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-36  |  Road

134
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 5:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-42  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Indiana)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

38.2%

Pacers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

DAL By 1-7 points

21.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

10.7%

IND By 1-7 points

27.2%

IND By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
123
DALLAS
126
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o235.0 Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 DAL @ IND 134 - 130
Oct 29, 2025 IND @ DAL 105 - 107
Mar 19, 2025 DAL @ IND 131 - 135
Nov 4, 2024 IND @ DAL 134 - 127
Mar 5, 2024 IND @ DAL 137 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.2% more
Indiana: 17.9 vs Dallas: 12.5
Assists (L5) +26.6% more
Indiana: 28.4 vs Dallas: 22.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Indiana: 36.7% vs Dallas: 31.0%
Blocks (L5) +22.2% more
Dallas: 3.5 vs Indiana: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 123.0 134
IND Score 126.0 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 31.0 48.0 / 39.0
Assists 28.4 / 22.5 37.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 45.4 50.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 74.3 80.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 40.6 39.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.2 / 8.9 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.9 / 12.5 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DAL
IND
DAL
ML
48% 47-50
62% 63-39
54% 45-38
54% 44-37
ATS
59% 57-40
67% 68-34
54% 45-38
54% 44-37
TTL
54% 52-45
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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