CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
36-21 | Road
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
43-14 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
THUNDER
0%
CAVALIERS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
257.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
CLE By 1-7 points
15.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
5.8%
OKC By 1-7 points
26.2%
OKC By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
125
CLEVELAND
Oklahoma City
132
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
108
CLEVELAND
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.5
Win
Proj Total: 257.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
CLE @ OKC
113 - 121
Jan 19, 2026
OKC @ CLE
136 - 104
Jan 16, 2025
CLE @ OKC
114 - 134
Jan 8, 2025
OKC @ CLE
122 - 129
Nov 8, 2023
CLE @ OKC
120 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+10.9% more
Oklahoma City: 15.5
vs
Cleveland: 14.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Oklahoma City: 82.9%
vs
Cleveland: 80.5%
Blocks (L5)
+15.9% more
Cleveland: 5.3
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+12.3% more
Cleveland: 27.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 23.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
125.0
113
OKC Score
132.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 40.3
51.0 / 33.0
Assists
23.8 / 27.1
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 51.8
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
82.9 / 80.5
64.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 45.1
44.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.2
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 14.0
16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CLE
OKC
CLE
ML
70%
80-34
60%
69-46
48%
46-49
56%
55-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
67%
75-37-3
48%
46-49
56%
55-44
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
68-47
100%
95-0
100%
99-0
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