Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Wizards CHA @ WSH

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

26-31  |  Road

129
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 6:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-39  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
HORNETS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Charlotte)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

88.5%

Wizards Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)

CHA By 1-7 points

20.1%

CHA By 8-14 points

27.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

8.0%

WSH By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
CHARLOTTE
110
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
112
CHARLOTTE
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (+11) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 CHA @ WSH 129 - 112
Jan 24, 2026 WSH @ CHA 115 - 119
Dec 23, 2025 WSH @ CHA 109 - 126
Oct 26, 2025 CHA @ WSH 139 - 113
Mar 1, 2025 WSH @ CHA 113 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.7%
Charlotte: 90.8% vs Washington: 77.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
Charlotte: 36.6% vs Washington: 28.9%
Steals (L5) +85.6% more
Washington: 12.0 vs Charlotte: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +63.3% more
Washington: 6.5 vs Charlotte: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 122.0 129
WSH Score 110.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 36.6 43.0 / 54.0
Assists 29.5 / 24.6 24.0 / 27.0
Blocks 6.5 / 4.0 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 41.2 49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 90.8 71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 43.8 / 46.3 37.0 / 53.0
Steals 12.0 / 6.5 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 16.1 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHA
WSH
CHA
ML
70% 112-49
61% 60-39
47% 39-44
48% 40-44
ATS
69% 111-49-1
60% 59-40
47% 39-44
48% 40-44
TTL
74% 119-41-1
58% 57-42
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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