UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
5-21 | Road
74
TULSA
GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA
21-6 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
GOLDEN HURRICANE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Tulsa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)
UTSA By 1-7 points
16.9%
UTSA By 8-14 points
6.8%
TLSA By 1-7 points
26.8%
TLSA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
65
UTSA
Tulsa
71
TULSA
Simulated Score
UTSA
70
UTSA
Tulsa
75
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane (+21.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
UTSA @ TLSA
74 - 100
Feb 15, 2025
UTSA @ TLSA
76 - 80
Jan 7, 2025
TLSA @ UTSA
82 - 77
Feb 28, 2024
TLSA @ UTSA
73 - 89
Jan 17, 2024
UTSA @ TLSA
78 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+42.5% more
Tulsa: 14.3
vs
UTSA: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.1%
Tulsa: 36.7%
vs
UTSA: 28.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.5%
Tulsa: 72.8%
vs
UTSA: 65.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Tulsa: 43.7%
vs
UTSA: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
65.0
74
TLSA Score
71.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 28.6
41.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.3 / 10.0
23.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.1 / 3.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 39.6
54.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 65.3
80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 37.8
40.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.6 / 7.0
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 10.3
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
TLSA
Advantage
30-8-0
(79.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
TLSA
Advantage
20-15-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UTSA
TLSA
UTSA
ML
66%
25-13
83%
24-5
64%
23-13
48%
14-15
ATS
74%
28-10
72%
21-8
64%
23-13
50%
15-15
TTL
58%
22-16
66%
19-10
100%
36-0
100%
30-0