FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
17-11 | Road
85
QUINNIPIAC
BOBCATSQUIN
18-10 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
STAGS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
QUINNIPIAC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around QUIN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (QUIN)
FAIR By 1-7 points
27.4%
FAIR By 8-14 points
21.6%
QUIN By 1-7 points
20.1%
QUIN By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
74
FAIRFIELD
Quinnipiac
70
QUINNIPIAC
Simulated Score
Fairfield
68
FAIRFIELD
Quinnipiac
72
QUINNIPIAC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
FAIR @ QUIN
85 - 79
Feb 1, 2026
QUIN @ FAIR
72 - 65
Mar 8, 2025
QUIN @ FAIR
74 - 83
Jan 31, 2025
FAIR @ QUIN
69 - 81
Feb 23, 2024
FAIR @ QUIN
85 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.7% more
Fairfield: 14.9
vs
Quinnipiac: 11.1
Steals (L5)
+21.9% more
Fairfield: 7.5
vs
Quinnipiac: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.1%
Fairfield: 38.2%
vs
Quinnipiac: 25.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.4%
Fairfield: 45.6%
vs
Quinnipiac: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
74.0
85
QUIN Score
70.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.1 / 38.2
32.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.1 / 14.9
10.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.7
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
36.1 / 45.6
46.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 65.0
52.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 34.7
32.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.8 / 7.5
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 10.2
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
QUIN
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
QUIN
13-17-1
(43.3%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
QUIN
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
QUIN
FAIR
QUIN
FAIR
ML
66%
21-11
55%
18-15
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
ATS
59%
19-13
48%
16-17
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
TTL
62%
20-12
48%
16-17
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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