SACRED HEART
PIONEERSSHU
12-17 | Road
63
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
17-10 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
RED FOXES
100%
PIONEERS
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRST +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
SHU By 1-7 points
26.2%
SHU By 8-14 points
16.9%
MRST By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRST By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacred Heart
73
SACRED HEART
Marist
72
MARIST
Simulated Score
Sacred Heart
68
SACRED HEART
Marist
72
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pioneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
SHU @ MRST
63 - 65
Jan 9, 2026
MRST @ SHU
76 - 72
Feb 28, 2025
MRST @ SHU
54 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.5% more
Sacred Heart: 11.5
vs
Marist: 9.6
Blocks (L5)
+15.4% more
Sacred Heart: 3.7
vs
Marist: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Sacred Heart: 35.2%
vs
Marist: 33.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Sacred Heart: 82.0%
vs
Marist: 80.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHU Score
73.0
63
MRST Score
72.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 35.2
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
14.6 / 13.3
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.7
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 44.1
36.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
80.3 / 82.0
67.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 34.9
36.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.0 / 4.4
5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 11.5
4.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -1.3
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +1.5
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
SHU
MRST
SHU
ML
55%
17-14
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
73%
24-9
ATS
74%
23-8
76%
25-8
61%
19-12
73%
24-9
TTL
52%
16-15
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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