Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Warriors IONA @ MRMK

IONA

GAELSIONA

16-12  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Lawler Arena
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

19-9  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
GAELS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Merrimack)
GaelsIONA (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

2.3%

Warriors Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRMK -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

IONA By 1-7 points

1.7%

IONA By 8-14 points

0.3%

MRMK By 1-7 points

8.0%

MRMK By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
IONA
87
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
69
IONA
72
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 IONA @ MRMK 86 - 88
Jan 22, 2026 MRMK @ IONA 60 - 61
Feb 23, 2025 MRMK @ IONA 77 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.1% more
Merrimack: 5.6 vs Iona: 3.5
Steals (L5) +42.2% more
Merrimack: 9.4 vs Iona: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Merrimack: 86.3% vs Iona: 74.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Merrimack: 36.8% vs Iona: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IONA Score 67.0 86
MRMK Score 87.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 30.7 33.0 / 41.0
Assists 11.9 / 11.6 18.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.5 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 42.3 41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 86.3 / 74.9 89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 34.8 32.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.4 / 6.6 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 11.8 4.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
MRMK
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
IONA
MRMK
IONA
ML
47% 16-18
41% 13-19
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 18-16
53% 17-15
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
TTL
62% 21-13
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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