OHIO STATE
BUCKEYESOSU
17-9 | Road
60
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
21-5 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
100%
SPARTANS
0%
BUCKEYES
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
OSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
OSU By 8-14 points
3.3%
MSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
MSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Ohio State
70
OHIO STATE
Michigan State
80
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Ohio State
70
OHIO STATE
Michigan State
76
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
OSU @ MSU
60 - 66
Jan 3, 2025
MSU @ OSU
69 - 62
Feb 25, 2024
OSU @ MSU
60 - 57
Mar 10, 2023
OSU @ MSU
68 - 58
Mar 4, 2023
OSU @ MSU
78 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.7% more
Michigan State: 3.7
vs
Ohio State: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+37.3% more
Michigan State: 18.1
vs
Ohio State: 13.2
Rebounding (L5)
+24.9% more
Michigan State: 39.3
vs
Ohio State: 31.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.9%
Michigan State: 86.8%
vs
Ohio State: 74.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OSU Score
70.0
60
MSU Score
80.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 42.3
27.0 / 18.0
Assists
18.1 / 13.2
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 48.8
40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
86.8 / 74.9
72.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 31.4
43.0 / 26.0
Steals
4.4 / 4.7
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 11.2
10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
MSU
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -1.0
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
OSU
MSU
OSU
ML
71%
25-10
53%
18-16
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
ATS
71%
25-10
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
TTL
49%
17-18
56%
19-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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