NIAGARA
PURPLE EAGLESNIA
7-20 | Road
62
RIDER
BRONCSRID
3-23 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
0%
BRONCS
100%
PURPLE EAGLES
--
BRONCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NIAGARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Niagara)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIA)
NIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
NIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
RID By 1-7 points
15.3%
RID By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Niagara
78
NIAGARA
Rider
71
RIDER
Simulated Score
Niagara
68
NIAGARA
Rider
78
RIDER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Purple Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Purple Eagles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Broncs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u131.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
NIA @ RID
62 - 67
Mar 8, 2025
NIA @ RID
76 - 77
Jan 12, 2025
RID @ NIA
68 - 65
Mar 1, 2024
RID @ NIA
71 - 61
Jan 19, 2024
NIA @ RID
78 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+42.1% more
Niagara: 12.1
vs
Rider: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+26.0% more
Niagara: 14.0
vs
Rider: 10.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.0%
Niagara: 77.3%
vs
Rider: 64.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Niagara: 43.9%
vs
Rider: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIA Score
78.0
62
RID Score
71.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 33.5
33.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.4 / 14.0
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.0 / 1.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.5 / 43.9
44.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
64.4 / 77.3
83.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
30.2 / 28.7
33.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.9 / 5.6
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.0 / 12.1
11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
Advantage
8-22-0
(26.7%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.7
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RID
NIA
RID
NIA
ML
72%
21-8
55%
16-13
66%
19-10
72%
21-8
ATS
72%
21-8
69%
20-9
66%
19-10
72%
21-8
TTL
62%
18-11
55%
16-13
100%
29-0
100%
29-0
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