Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Leopards AMER @ LAF

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

15-13  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Kirby Sports Center
View Odds Details →

LAFAYETTE

LEOPARDSLAF

9-19  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
LEOPARDS
0%
EAGLES --
LEOPARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
LAFAYETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Lafayette)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 LeopardsLAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

13.6%

Leopards Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAF -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAF)

AMER By 1-7 points

9.3%

AMER By 8-14 points

2.7%

LAF By 1-7 points

21.6%

LAF By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
76
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
87
LAFAYETTE
Simulated Score
67
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
70
LAFAYETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Leopards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leopards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leopards (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Leopards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 AMER @ LAF 75 - 61
Jan 31, 2026 LAF @ AMER 67 - 65
Mar 6, 2025 LAF @ AMER 69 - 71
Feb 10, 2025 LAF @ AMER 58 - 60
Jan 29, 2025 AMER @ LAF 75 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Lafayette: 11.2 vs American University: 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Lafayette: 31.8 vs American University: 29.0
Assists (L5) +8.1% more
Lafayette: 12.6 vs American University: 11.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Lafayette: 46.5% vs American University: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 76.0 75
LAF Score 87.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 32.8 17.0 / 50.0
Assists 12.6 / 11.7 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.3 / 2.2 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 43.9 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 75.8 69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 29.0 25.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.0 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.5 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
LAF
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
LAF
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAF
AMER
LAF
AMER
ML
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
ATS
56% 18-14
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
TTL
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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