Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Owls @ Mean Green FAU @ UNT

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

OWLSFAU

15-12  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sun, Feb 22 • 4:00 PM ET
The Super Pit
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

15-12  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
100%
📊
MEAN GREEN
0%
OWLS --
MEAN GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Texas)
OwlsFAU (-3.5) 0 Mean GreenUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Owls Cover

34.5%

Mean Green Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

FAU By 1-7 points

20.1%

FAU By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNT By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNT By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
73
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
77
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
68
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
75
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Mean Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 FAU @ UNT 70 - 74
Feb 22, 2026 FAU @ UNT 72 - 73
Feb 27, 2025 UNT @ FAU 71 - 61
Jan 26, 2025 FAU @ UNT 64 - 77
Mar 15, 2024 UNT @ FAU 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +103.2% more
North Texas: 8.9 vs Florida Atlantic: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
North Texas: 73.6% vs Florida Atlantic: 68.5%
Blocks (L5) +34.5% more
Florida Atlantic: 6.2 vs North Texas: 4.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 41.4 vs North Texas: 37.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 73.0 72
UNT Score 77.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.7 / 25.8 28.0 / 47.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.0 11.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.0 / 6.2 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 41.9 42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 68.5 76.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 41.4 40.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.9 / 4.4 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.2 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
UNT Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.2
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
FAU
UNT
FAU
ML
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
ATS
52% 17-16
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
TTL
67% 22-11
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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