NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
17-11 | Road
58
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
14-14 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
100%
PENGUINS
0%
NORSE
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Youngstown State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around YSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)
NKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NKU By 8-14 points
13.7%
YSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
YSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
80
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Youngstown State
81
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
68
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Youngstown State
72
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
NKU @ YSU
58 - 64
Jan 4, 2026
YSU @ NKU
79 - 94
Mar 1, 2025
YSU @ NKU
79 - 88
Jan 8, 2025
NKU @ YSU
61 - 72
Jan 28, 2024
NKU @ YSU
52 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.7%
Youngstown State: 77.9%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 67.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Youngstown State: 42.3%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 34.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Youngstown State: 53.1%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 47.7%
Steals (L5)
+25.3% more
Northern Kentucky: 7.7
vs
Youngstown State: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
80.0
58
YSU Score
81.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.3 / 34.8
25.0 / 26.0
Assists
17.4 / 16.3
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.6
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
53.1 / 47.7
42.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 67.2
65.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 34.4
40.0 / 43.0
Steals
5.7 / 7.7
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 11.5
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YSU
NKU
YSU
NKU
ML
57%
17-13
53%
18-16
67%
20-10
65%
22-12
ATS
47%
14-16
56%
19-15
67%
20-10
65%
22-12
TTL
60%
18-12
68%
23-11
100%
30-0
100%
34-0