Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Governors @ Dolphins APSU @ JAX

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

20-6  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Swisher Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

10-18  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
GOVERNORS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 DolphinsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

27.4%

Dolphins Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JAX +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

APSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

APSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

JAX By 1-7 points

16.9%

JAX By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
72
AUSTIN PEAY
66
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
68
AUSTIN PEAY
72
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Governors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 APSU @ JAX 65 - 61
Jan 3, 2026 JAX @ APSU 68 - 71
Jan 4, 2025 APSU @ JAX 44 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 APSU @ JAX 43 - 63
Feb 16, 2023 JAX @ APSU 60 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.5% more
Austin Peay: 8.1 vs Jacksonville: 5.2
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
Austin Peay: 16.0 vs Jacksonville: 11.1
Blocks (L5) +28.8% more
Austin Peay: 2.7 vs Jacksonville: 1.9
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Austin Peay: 34.1 vs Jacksonville: 28.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 72.0 65
JAX Score 66.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 39.2 15.0 / 19.0
Assists 11.1 / 16.0 6.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.7 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 50.4 39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 68.3 / 76.8 74.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 34.1 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.2 / 8.1 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 10.8 8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
JAX
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
APSU
JAX
APSU
ML
74% 23-8
53% 16-14
60% 18-12
59% 16-11
ATS
65% 20-11
57% 17-13
61% 19-12
59% 16-11
TTL
65% 20-11
57% 17-13
100% 31-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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