INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
10-17 | Road
82
EAST TEXAS A&M
LIONSETAM
11-17 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
LIONS
0%
CARDINALS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (East Texas A&M)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETAM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETAM)
UIW By 1-7 points
5.8%
UIW By 8-14 points
1.4%
ETAM By 1-7 points
16.9%
ETAM By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Incarnate Word
68
INCARNATE WORD
East Texas A&M
82
EAST TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
Incarnate Word
73
INCARNATE WORD
East Texas A&M
78
EAST TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u145.0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UIW @ ETAM
82 - 73
Jan 19, 2026
ETAM @ UIW
80 - 58
Mar 1, 2025
UIW @ ETAM
75 - 68
Dec 7, 2024
ETAM @ UIW
53 - 65
Feb 19, 2024
ETAM @ UIW
76 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+63.5% more
East Texas A&M: 5.5
vs
Incarnate Word: 3.4
Blocks (L5)
+62.6% more
East Texas A&M: 2.8
vs
Incarnate Word: 1.7
Assists (L5)
+24.4% more
East Texas A&M: 14.1
vs
Incarnate Word: 11.3
Turnovers (L5)
+8.9% more
East Texas A&M: 12.6
vs
Incarnate Word: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UIW Score
68.0
82
ETAM Score
82.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 35.6
36.0 / 50.0
Assists
14.1 / 11.3
21.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.7
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 41.2
49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
68.2 / 79.4
63.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 35.4
25.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.5 / 3.4
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 11.6
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
ETAM
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
ETAM
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETAM
UIW
ETAM
UIW
ML
52%
13-12
47%
14-16
62%
15-9
76%
22-7
ATS
56%
14-11
53%
16-14
62%
15-9
77%
23-7
TTL
68%
17-8
60%
18-12
100%
24-0
100%
30-0
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