NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
11-16 | Road
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
24-3 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
COLONELS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Nicholls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NICH -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
NICH By 1-7 points
25.3%
NICH By 8-14 points
26.2%
SFA By 1-7 points
13.7%
SFA By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Nicholls
80
NICHOLLS
Stephen F. Austin
72
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Nicholls
74
NICHOLLS
Stephen F. Austin
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colonels (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NICH @ SFA
78 - 81
Jan 19, 2026
SFA @ NICH
79 - 62
Mar 1, 2025
NICH @ SFA
94 - 70
Jan 18, 2025
SFA @ NICH
61 - 73
Feb 5, 2020
NICH @ SFA
64 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.6% more
Nicholls: 9.2
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+9.2% more
Nicholls: 12.9
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 11.7
Blocks (L5)
+8.5% more
Nicholls: 4.0
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 3.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Nicholls: 46.9%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NICH Score
80.0
78
SFA Score
72.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 34.4
39.0 / 50.0
Assists
11.7 / 12.9
18.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.0
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 46.9
47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
69.2 / 67.1
67.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 29.5
34.0 / 24.0
Steals
6.8 / 6.6
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 9.2
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
NICH
SFA
NICH
ML
59%
17-12
53%
17-15
79%
23-6
68%
19-9
ATS
59%
17-12
47%
15-17
79%
23-6
68%
19-9
TTL
62%
18-11
56%
18-14
100%
29-0
100%
28-0
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