Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Heat MEM @ MIA

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

21-33  |  Road

120
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

30-27  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
HEAT
100%
GRIZZLIES --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

21.2%

Heat Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MEM By 1-7 points

25.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

26.2%

MIA By 1-7 points

13.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
116
MEMPHIS
108
MIAMI
Simulated Score
105
MEMPHIS
110
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Heat (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.5 Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MEM @ MIA 120 - 136
Oct 24, 2025 MIA @ MEM 146 - 114
Apr 3, 2025 MEM @ MIA 110 - 108
Mar 15, 2025 MIA @ MEM 91 - 125
Oct 18, 2024 MIA @ MEM 114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.6% more
Memphis: 13.4 vs Miami: 8.9
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Memphis: 14.0 vs Miami: 11.0
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Memphis: 48.6% vs Miami: 46.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Memphis: 36.6% vs Miami: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 116.0 120
MIA Score 108.0 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 36.6 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 28.3 / 27.3 36.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.9 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 48.6 52.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 73.5 76.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 53.7 / 38.7 57.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.9 / 13.4 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 14.0 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MEM
MIA
MEM
ML
48% 46-50
57% 59-44
59% 48-34
50% 41-41
ATS
51% 49-47
63% 65-38
59% 48-34
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 57-39
70% 71-31-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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