Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gauchos @ Rainbow Warriors UCSB @ HAW

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

17-10  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

18-7  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
0%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
GAUCHOS --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GauchosUCSB (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gauchos Cover

38.2%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HAW +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

UCSB By 1-7 points

27.2%

UCSB By 8-14 points

20.1%

HAW By 1-7 points

21.6%

HAW By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
77
UC SANTA BARBARA
74
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
68
UC SANTA BARBARA
72
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gauchos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UCSB @ HAW 75 - 78
Jan 17, 2026 HAW @ UCSB 62 - 77
Feb 8, 2025 HAW @ UCSB 72 - 76
Jan 2, 2025 UCSB @ HAW 64 - 61
Feb 17, 2024 HAW @ UCSB 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.0% more
UC Santa Barbara: 13.8 vs Hawai'i: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.6%
UC Santa Barbara: 35.9% vs Hawai'i: 26.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
UC Santa Barbara: 76.9% vs Hawai'i: 70.8%
Blocks (L5) +36.6% more
Hawai'i: 3.4 vs UC Santa Barbara: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score 77.0 75
HAW Score 74.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 35.9 28.0 / 35.0
Assists 9.1 / 13.8 5.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 42.6 43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 76.9 68.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 37.7 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.8 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 12.6 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
UCSB
HAW
UCSB
ML
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
ATS
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
TTL
61% 20-13
47% 15-17
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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