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UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

23-3  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

17-9  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
WOLF PACK
100%
AGGIES --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Utah State)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

81.6%

Wolf Pack Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

USU By 1-7 points

24.3%

USU By 8-14 points

26.8%

NEV By 1-7 points

12.2%

NEV By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
UTAH STATE
70
NEVADA
Simulated Score
75
UTAH STATE
78
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 NEV @ USU 66 - 79
Feb 21, 2026 USU @ NEV 77 - 80
Jan 14, 2026 NEV @ USU 62 - 71
Jan 22, 2025 NEV @ USU 69 - 90
Dec 31, 2024 USU @ NEV 69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.0% more
Utah State: 17.4 vs Nevada: 12.4
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
Utah State: 3.2 vs Nevada: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5) +12.9%
Utah State: 53.5% vs Nevada: 40.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Utah State: 38.0% vs Nevada: 27.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 79.0 77
NEV Score 70.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.7 / 38.0 53.0 / 44.0
Assists 12.4 / 17.4 17.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.2 7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 53.5 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 71.8 74.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 32.1 40.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.6 3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 9.0 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
NEV
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
USU
NEV
USU
ML
62% 23-14
49% 17-18
73% 27-10
66% 21-11
ATS
73% 27-10
74% 26-9
73% 27-10
67% 22-11
TTL
49% 18-19
51% 18-17
100% 37-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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