Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Waves @ Beavers PEPP @ ORST

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

8-20  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

14-14  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
📊
BEAVERS
0%
WAVES --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oregon State)
WavesPEPP (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Waves Cover

11.5%

Beavers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

PEPP By 1-7 points

8.0%

PEPP By 8-14 points

2.2%

ORST By 1-7 points

20.1%

ORST By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
PEPPERDINE
81
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
68
PEPPERDINE
72
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beavers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beavers (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 PEPP @ ORST 73 - 83
Mar 8, 2025 PEPP @ ORST 77 - 73
Feb 20, 2025 ORST @ PEPP 84 - 78
Jan 23, 2025 PEPP @ ORST 63 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.0% more
Oregon State: 4.3 vs Pepperdine: 3.0
Steals (L5) +34.9% more
Pepperdine: 6.2 vs Oregon State: 4.1
Assists (L5) +23.9% more
Pepperdine: 17.3 vs Oregon State: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Pepperdine: 45.5% vs Oregon State: 39.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score 69.0 73
ORST Score 81.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 45.5 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.2 / 17.3 23.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.0 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 45.6 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 70.8 63.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 32.6 49.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.1 / 6.2 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 11.0 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
ORST Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
PEPP
ORST
PEPP
ML
45% 15-18
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
ATS
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
TTL
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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