BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
15-11 | Road
86
MASSACHUSETTS
MINUTEMENMASS
15-12 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
MINUTEMEN
100%
BULLS
--
MINUTEMEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MASS +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MASS)
BUF By 1-7 points
26.8%
BUF By 8-14 points
24.3%
MASS By 1-7 points
16.9%
MASS By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
73
BUFFALO
Massachusetts
67
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
Buffalo
78
BUFFALO
Massachusetts
72
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Minutemen (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Bulls (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
BUF @ MASS
86 - 82
Jan 23, 2026
MASS @ BUF
68 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+69.5% more
Buffalo: 3.7
vs
Massachusetts: 1.1
Steals (L5)
+32.6% more
Buffalo: 7.4
vs
Massachusetts: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.4%
Buffalo: 74.6%
vs
Massachusetts: 61.2%
Assists (L5)
+26.9% more
Massachusetts: 16.8
vs
Buffalo: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
73.0
86
MASS Score
67.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.4 / 36.1
36.0 / 50.0
Assists
16.8 / 13.3
21.0 / 18.0
Blocks
1.1 / 3.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 45.1
52.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
61.2 / 74.6
59.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 30.4
35.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.0 / 7.4
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 11.6
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
MASS
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
MASS
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
BUF
MASS
BUF
ML
44%
14-18
45%
14-17
68%
21-10
45%
14-17
ATS
47%
15-17
55%
17-14
68%
21-10
45%
14-17
TTL
56%
18-14
48%
15-16
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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