Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Wildcats SUU @ ACU

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

9-18  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

12-14  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
THUNDERBIRDS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

38.2%

Wildcats Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ACU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

SUU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SUU By 8-14 points

20.1%

ACU By 1-7 points

21.6%

ACU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SOUTHERN UTAH
76
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN UTAH
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunderbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+8) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 SUU @ ACU 83 - 87
Jan 31, 2026 SUU @ ACU 79 - 76
Jan 17, 2026 ACU @ SUU 52 - 74
Feb 20, 2025 SUU @ ACU 59 - 75
Feb 8, 2025 ACU @ SUU 84 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.0% more
Southern Utah: 4.2 vs Abilene Christian: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +16.3%
Southern Utah: 41.8% vs Abilene Christian: 25.5%
Assists (L5) +11.2% more
Southern Utah: 13.4 vs Abilene Christian: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Southern Utah: 73.6% vs Abilene Christian: 65.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 79.0 83
ACU Score 76.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.5 / 41.8 21.0 / 69.0
Assists 11.9 / 13.4 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.0 / 4.2 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 39.4 / 45.1 56.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 73.6 73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 35.6 22.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.4 / 4.9 15.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 14.8 12.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
SUU
ACU
SUU
ML
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
ATS
55% 18-15
71% 22-9
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
TTL
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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