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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

15-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Reed Gym
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

11-17  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
BOBCATS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Montana State)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

61.8%

Bengals Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

MTST By 1-7 points

27.2%

MTST By 8-14 points

20.1%

IDST By 1-7 points

21.6%

IDST By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
83
MONTANA STATE
80
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
75
MONTANA STATE
70
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bobcats (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MTST @ IDST 76 - 91
Jan 22, 2026 IDST @ MTST 62 - 74
Mar 10, 2025 MTST @ IDST 80 - 60
Feb 15, 2025 IDST @ MTST 69 - 74
Jan 16, 2025 MTST @ IDST 67 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Montana State: 11.1 vs Idaho State: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Montana State: 34.5% vs Idaho State: 30.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Montana State: 46.5% vs Idaho State: 42.4%
Turnovers (L5) +21.0% more
Idaho State: 10.9 vs Montana State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 83.0 76
IDST Score 80.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.2 / 34.5 35.0 / 30.0
Assists 8.5 / 11.1 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.7 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 46.5 58.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 75.5 88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 30.8 35.0 / 19.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.8 3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 9.0 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
MTST
IDST
MTST
ML
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
ATS
50% 16-16
52% 16-15
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
TTL
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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