ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
14-12 | Road
94
RICHMOND
SPIDERSRICH
14-13 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
SPIDERS
100%
BONNIES
--
SPIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SBU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)
SBU By 1-7 points
27.4%
SBU By 8-14 points
21.6%
RICH By 1-7 points
20.1%
RICH By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Bonaventure
83
ST. BONAVENTURE
Richmond
79
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
St. Bonaventure
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
Richmond
75
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bonnies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bonnies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Spiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SBU @ RICH
94 - 99
Jan 7, 2026
RICH @ SBU
89 - 80
Jan 15, 2025
RICH @ SBU
49 - 63
Jan 6, 2024
SBU @ RICH
54 - 65
Feb 1, 2023
SBU @ RICH
66 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.3% more
St. Bonaventure: 6.4
vs
Richmond: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+38.7% more
St. Bonaventure: 12.6
vs
Richmond: 7.7
Steals (L5)
+24.8% more
St. Bonaventure: 6.4
vs
Richmond: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+19.0% more
St. Bonaventure: 37.0
vs
Richmond: 29.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SBU Score
83.0
94
RICH Score
79.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 38.0
45.0 / 46.0
Assists
12.6 / 14.9
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.2 / 6.4
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 45.9
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 82.0
75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 37.0
29.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.8 / 6.4
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.7 / 12.6
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
RICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
RICH
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
SBU
RICH
SBU
ML
53%
17-15
59%
20-14
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
ATS
44%
14-18
50%
17-17
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
TTL
56%
18-14
38%
13-21
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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