Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Toreros LMU @ USD

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

13-15  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

11-17  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
TOREROS
0%
LIONS --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Diego)
LionsLMU (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

24.2%

Toreros Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USD -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USD)

LMU By 1-7 points

15.3%

LMU By 8-14 points

5.8%

USD By 1-7 points

26.2%

USD By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
78
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
71
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
75
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toreros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toreros (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 USD @ LMU 66 - 62
Feb 21, 2026 LMU @ USD 77 - 65
Feb 7, 2026 USD @ LMU 63 - 83
Mar 7, 2025 USD @ LMU 74 - 100
Feb 1, 2025 LMU @ USD 78 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +51.4% more
San Diego: 16.3 vs Loyola Marymount: 10.7
Steals (L5) +27.4% more
San Diego: 7.5 vs Loyola Marymount: 5.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
San Diego: 36.0% vs Loyola Marymount: 33.5%
Blocks (L5) +66.1% more
Loyola Marymount: 2.7 vs San Diego: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LMU Score 71.0 77
USD Score 78.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 33.5 40.0 / 47.0
Assists 16.3 / 10.7 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 0.9 / 2.7 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 48.2 44.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 73.0 69.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 30.9 28.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.9 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.3 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LMU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
LMU
USD
LMU
ML
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
70% 23-10
50% 16-16
ATS
55% 18-15
47% 15-17
70% 23-10
50% 16-16
TTL
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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