IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
14-13 | Road
86
SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
9-17 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
0%
HORNETS
100%
VANDALS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
IDHO By 1-7 points
26.8%
IDHO By 8-14 points
18.6%
SAC By 1-7 points
23.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
73
IDAHO
Sacramento State
71
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
Idaho
68
IDAHO
Sacramento State
78
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vandals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
SAC @ IDHO
45 - 68
Feb 21, 2026
IDHO @ SAC
86 - 80
Jan 22, 2026
SAC @ IDHO
76 - 86
Feb 8, 2025
SAC @ IDHO
76 - 78
Jan 9, 2025
IDHO @ SAC
80 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
Idaho: 11.1
vs
Sacramento State: 9.5
Rebounding (L5)
+13.6% more
Idaho: 36.0
vs
Sacramento State: 31.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Idaho: 38.0%
vs
Sacramento State: 31.5%
Steals (L5)
+63.1% more
Sacramento State: 8.4
vs
Idaho: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
73.0
86
SAC Score
71.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 38.0
32.0 / 41.0
Assists
12.4 / 12.4
13.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.1
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 44.8
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 73.6
85.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
31.1 / 36.0
28.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.4 / 5.1
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 11.1
8.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
SAC
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
IDHO
SAC
IDHO
ML
57%
17-13
56%
20-16
87%
26-4
64%
21-12
ATS
73%
22-8
58%
21-15
87%
27-4
64%
21-12
TTL
60%
18-12
69%
25-11
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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