Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Wildcats MONT @ WEB

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

14-13  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 9:30 PM ET
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WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

14-14  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WEB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

MONT By 1-7 points

26.2%

MONT By 8-14 points

16.9%

WEB By 1-7 points

24.3%

WEB By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MONTANA
78
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
72
MONTANA
78
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MONT @ WEB 72 - 92
Jan 22, 2026 WEB @ MONT 65 - 81
Feb 15, 2025 WEB @ MONT 58 - 65
Jan 16, 2025 MONT @ WEB 63 - 59
Jan 22, 2024 WEB @ MONT 62 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.3% more
Montana: 13.7 vs Weber State: 8.8
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
Montana: 1.3 vs Weber State: 0.9
Assists (L5) +13.7% more
Montana: 13.8 vs Weber State: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Montana: 37.9% vs Weber State: 28.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 79.0 72
WEB Score 78.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 37.9 50.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.9 / 13.8 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 47.1 59.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 76.3 81.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 32.3 34.0 / 22.0
Steals 7.7 / 5.5 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 13.7 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
MONT
WEB
MONT
ML
73% 22-8
39% 13-20
73% 22-8
73% 24-9
ATS
63% 19-11
55% 18-15
74% 23-8
73% 24-9
TTL
83% 25-5
59% 19-13-1
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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