Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Miners @ Aggies UTEP @ NMSU

UTEP

MINERSUTEP

10-16  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

12-13  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
MINERS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
MINERS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico State)
MinersUTEP (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miners Cover

24.2%

Aggies Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

UTEP By 1-7 points

15.3%

UTEP By 8-14 points

5.8%

NMSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NMSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UTEP
76
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
70
UTEP
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UTEP @ NMSU 63 - 67
Feb 7, 2026 NMSU @ UTEP 88 - 91
Feb 8, 2025 UTEP @ NMSU 66 - 63
Jan 11, 2025 NMSU @ UTEP 85 - 57
Feb 10, 2024 NMSU @ UTEP 49 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.9% more
New Mexico State: 14.4 vs UTEP: 11.5
Rebounding (L5) +16.2% more
New Mexico State: 38.7 vs UTEP: 33.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
New Mexico State: 80.6% vs UTEP: 73.1%
Steals (L5) +34.0% more
UTEP: 7.1 vs New Mexico State: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 69.0 63
NMSU Score 76.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 38.2 31.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.4 / 11.5 14.0 / 5.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 44.0 41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 73.1 71.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 33.3 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.1 2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.0 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -1.7
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -1.7
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -1.2
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
UTEP
NMSU
UTEP
ML
61% 19-12
70% 21-9
67% 20-10
72% 21-8
ATS
65% 20-11
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
73% 22-8
TTL
45% 14-17
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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