Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Bulldogs UNM @ FRES

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

20-6  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 8:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

12-14  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
LOBOS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

34.5%

Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FRES +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

UNM By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNM By 8-14 points

21.6%

FRES By 1-7 points

20.1%

FRES By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
NEW MEXICO
80
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
67
NEW MEXICO
78
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UNM @ FRES 80 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 FRES @ UNM 74 - 83
Jan 20, 2025 FRES @ UNM 67 - 95
Dec 31, 2024 UNM @ FRES 103 - 89
Mar 6, 2024 FRES @ UNM 58 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.6% more
New Mexico: 3.1 vs Fresno State: 1.4
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
New Mexico: 16.6 vs Fresno State: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.3% more
New Mexico: 37.3 vs Fresno State: 32.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
New Mexico: 46.0% vs Fresno State: 37.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 84.0 80
FRES Score 80.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 46.0 30.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.2 / 16.6 14.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.4 / 3.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 50.2 52.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 69.6 56.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 37.3 33.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.5 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.8 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
UNM
FRES
UNM
ML
59% 19-13
57% 21-16
74% 23-8
74% 25-9
ATS
75% 24-8
57% 21-16
74% 23-8
74% 25-9
TTL
56% 18-14
41% 15-22
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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