Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolverines @ Mavericks UVU @ UTA

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

19-7  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

15-11  |  Home

54
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
WOLVERINES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Utah Valley)
WolverinesUVU (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

84.1%

Mavericks Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)

UVU By 1-7 points

23.0%

UVU By 8-14 points

27.2%

UTA By 1-7 points

10.7%

UTA By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
90
UTAH VALLEY
80
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
70
UTAH VALLEY
75
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UTA @ UVU 65 - 67
Feb 21, 2026 UVU @ UTA 66 - 54
Feb 7, 2026 UTA @ UVU 60 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UTA @ UVU 74 - 86
Feb 6, 2025 UTA @ UVU 73 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +60.2% more
Utah Valley: 6.7 vs UT Arlington: 2.7
Steals (L5) +41.4% more
Utah Valley: 12.2 vs UT Arlington: 7.1
Assists (L5) +28.9% more
Utah Valley: 17.3 vs UT Arlington: 12.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Utah Valley: 31.6% vs UT Arlington: 25.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVU Score 90.0 66
UTA Score 80.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.4 / 31.6 27.0 / 7.0
Assists 12.3 / 17.3 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.7 / 6.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 48.4 34.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 70.9 59.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 34.3 33.0 / 47.0
Steals 7.1 / 12.2 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 13.8 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
UVU
UTA
UVU
ML
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
ATS
59% 19-13
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
74% 25-9
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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