OLD DOMINION
MONARCHSODU
10-18 | Road
81
SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
14-14 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
MONARCHS
--
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Southern Miss)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)
ODU By 1-7 points
21.6%
ODU By 8-14 points
10.7%
USM By 1-7 points
27.2%
USM By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Old Dominion
78
OLD DOMINION
Southern Miss
81
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
Old Dominion
68
OLD DOMINION
Southern Miss
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Golden Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.0
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u148.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
ODU @ USM
81 - 86
Jan 4, 2025
USM @ ODU
71 - 74
Feb 7, 2024
ODU @ USM
73 - 78
Feb 22, 2023
USM @ ODU
64 - 69
Jan 30, 2020
ODU @ USM
68 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+96.2% more
Southern Miss: 7.8
vs
Old Dominion: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+40.6% more
Southern Miss: 13.2
vs
Old Dominion: 9.4
Blocks (L5)
+12.9% more
Southern Miss: 4.8
vs
Old Dominion: 4.3
Rebounding (L5)
+10.1% more
Southern Miss: 38.2
vs
Old Dominion: 34.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ODU Score
78.0
81
USM Score
81.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 38.7
50.0 / 48.0
Assists
10.1 / 16.0
11.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.3
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 51.4
55.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 73.1
67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 34.7
39.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.8 / 4.0
11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 9.4
26.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +0.7
USM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +0.7
USM
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +3.0
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
ODU
USM
ODU
ML
53%
18-16
52%
17-16
73%
24-9
67%
22-11
ATS
59%
20-14
70%
23-10
74%
25-9
67%
22-11
TTL
68%
23-11
70%
23-10
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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