Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Flames VAL @ UIC

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

15-13  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Credit Union 1 Arena
View Odds Details →

UIC

FLAMESUIC

16-12  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
BEACONS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UIC)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 FlamesUIC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

8.1%

Flames Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIC -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIC)

VAL By 1-7 points

5.8%

VAL By 8-14 points

1.4%

UIC By 1-7 points

16.9%

UIC By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
66
VALPARAISO
80
UIC
Simulated Score
69
VALPARAISO
74
UIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 VAL @ UIC 71 - 67
Jan 4, 2026 UIC @ VAL 59 - 66
Mar 6, 2025 VAL @ UIC 67 - 50
Mar 2, 2025 VAL @ UIC 73 - 77
Jan 18, 2025 UIC @ VAL 81 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +123.3% more
UIC: 9.1 vs Valparaiso: 4.1
Assists (L5) +54.7% more
UIC: 19.8 vs Valparaiso: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +32.5% more
UIC: 12.2 vs Valparaiso: 9.2
Rebounding (L5) +18.0% more
UIC: 39.6 vs Valparaiso: 33.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 66.0 71
UIC Score 80.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 39.9 24.0 / 38.0
Assists 19.8 / 12.8 9.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 47.4 46.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 61.3 61.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 33.5 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.1 / 4.1 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 9.2 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
UIC
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
UIC
--
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
UIC
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIC
VAL
UIC
VAL
ML
57% 20-15
48% 16-17
44% 15-19
61% 20-13
ATS
54% 19-16
52% 17-16
44% 15-19
61% 20-13
TTL
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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