Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Eagles CARK @ FGCU

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

18-10  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Alico Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

13-15  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
BEARS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Central Arkansas)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 EaglesFGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

69.1%

Eagles Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CARK -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

CARK By 1-7 points

27.2%

CARK By 8-14 points

23.0%

FGCU By 1-7 points

18.6%

FGCU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
81
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
76
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Simulated Score
70
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
75
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 FGCU @ CARK 63 - 73
Feb 21, 2026 CARK @ FGCU 71 - 75
Jan 1, 2026 FGCU @ CARK 83 - 85
Jan 11, 2025 CARK @ FGCU 71 - 77
Feb 1, 2024 FGCU @ CARK 82 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.1% more
Central Arkansas: 10.9 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 6.6
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Central Arkansas: 18.3 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 16.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Central Arkansas: 38.2% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Central Arkansas: 74.5% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 81.0 71
FGCU Score 76.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 38.2 27.0 / 34.0
Assists 16.1 / 18.3 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.6 / 1.8 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 46.8 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 74.5 54.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 34.1 40.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.6 / 10.9 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 9.3 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FGCU
CARK
FGCU
CARK
ML
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
ATS
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
TTL
61% 20-13
50% 16-16-1
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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