TROY
TROJANSTROY
18-10 | Road
54
SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
19-9 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
JAGUARS
0%
TROJANS
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (South Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)
TROY By 1-7 points
23.0%
TROY By 8-14 points
12.2%
USA By 1-7 points
26.8%
USA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
65
TROY
South Alabama
67
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Troy
69
TROY
South Alabama
73
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.0
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u143.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
TROY @ USA
54 - 65
Jan 3, 2026
USA @ TROY
49 - 59
Jan 25, 2025
USA @ TROY
55 - 65
Jan 18, 2025
TROY @ USA
63 - 64
Jan 27, 2024
USA @ TROY
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+73.5% more
South Alabama: 8.8
vs
Troy: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
South Alabama: 38.6%
vs
Troy: 30.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
South Alabama: 50.4%
vs
Troy: 42.7%
Blocks (L5)
+55.6% more
Troy: 3.7
vs
South Alabama: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
65.0
54
USA Score
67.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 30.4
28.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.0 / 13.9
12.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 42.7
44.0 / 25.0
Free Throw %
67.2 / 69.4
69.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 36.8
35.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.8 / 5.1
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 11.3
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
USA
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
USA
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
TROY
USA
TROY
ML
47%
15-17
59%
20-14
57%
17-13
61%
20-13
ATS
53%
17-15
65%
22-12
57%
17-13
61%
20-13
TTL
66%
21-11
56%
19-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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