Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Seawolves HAMP @ STBK

HAMPTON

PIRATESHAMP

12-15  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

16-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
📊
SEAWOLVES
100%
PIRATES --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
HAMPTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Hampton)
PiratesHAMP (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

72.6%

Seawolves Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HAMP -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAMP)

HAMP By 1-7 points

26.8%

HAMP By 8-14 points

24.3%

STBK By 1-7 points

16.9%

STBK By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
67
HAMPTON
61
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
68
HAMPTON
75
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 HAMP @ STBK 72 - 79
Dec 29, 2025 STBK @ HAMP 59 - 62
Feb 24, 2025 STBK @ HAMP 49 - 81
Feb 15, 2024 HAMP @ STBK 73 - 93
Jan 28, 2023 STBK @ HAMP 71 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Hampton: 12.2 vs Stony Brook: 9.4
Steals (L5) +78.9% more
Stony Brook: 7.1 vs Hampton: 4.0
Blocks (L5) +45.0% more
Stony Brook: 4.0 vs Hampton: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Stony Brook: 76.1% vs Hampton: 67.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAMP Score 67.0 72
STBK Score 61.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 27.8 39.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.5 / 12.6 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.8 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 36.3 54.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 67.2 74.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 35.9 31.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.0 10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 12.2 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAMP
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
STBK Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAMP
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HAMP
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.1
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
HAMP
STBK
HAMP
ML
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
71% 22-9
75% 24-8
ATS
61% 19-12
50% 16-16
71% 22-9
75% 24-8
TTL
65% 20-11
68% 21-10-1
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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