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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

7-19  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

15-11  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
SPARTANS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Boise State)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

8.1%

Broncos Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

SJSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

SJSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

BOIS By 1-7 points

16.9%

BOIS By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
66
SAN JOSÉ STATE
80
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
75
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 SJSU @ BOIS 84 - 74
Feb 21, 2026 SJSU @ BOIS 69 - 84
Jan 27, 2026 BOIS @ SJSU 89 - 58
Feb 7, 2025 SJSU @ BOIS 52 - 79
Dec 28, 2024 BOIS @ SJSU 73 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Boise State: 11.3 vs San José State: 9.7
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Boise State: 32.3 vs San José State: 29.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Boise State: 83.3% vs San José State: 74.0%
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
San José State: 6.3 vs Boise State: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 66.0 69
BOIS Score 80.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 43.1 38.0 / 17.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.1 15.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 45.4 55.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 83.3 / 74.0 88.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 29.5 33.0 / 27.0
Steals 3.6 / 6.3 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.7 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
SJSU
BOIS
SJSU
ML
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
ATS
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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