Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Racers EVAN @ MUR

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

6-21  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 4:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

19-10  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
PURPLE ACES --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Murray State)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

27.4%

Racers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

EVAN By 1-7 points

16.9%

EVAN By 8-14 points

6.8%

MUR By 1-7 points

26.8%

MUR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
EVANSVILLE
72
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
68
EVANSVILLE
72
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 EVAN @ MUR 75 - 88
Jan 7, 2026 MUR @ EVAN 79 - 69
Mar 6, 2025 EVAN @ MUR 53 - 74
Jan 29, 2025 MUR @ EVAN 74 - 78
Dec 3, 2024 EVAN @ MUR 61 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.2% more
Murray State: 3.8 vs Evansville: 2.7
Steals (L5) +32.4% more
Murray State: 7.0 vs Evansville: 5.3
Rebounding (L5) +21.2% more
Murray State: 31.4 vs Evansville: 25.9
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Murray State: 43.3% vs Evansville: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 66.0 75
MUR Score 72.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 33.8 39.0 / 41.0
Assists 10.1 / 12.4 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 40.9 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 70.9 92.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 25.9 37.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.3 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 12.6 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
EVAN
MUR
EVAN
ML
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
ATS
52% 17-16
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
TTL
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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