NAVY
MIDSHIPMENNAVY
22-6 | Road
81
ARMY
BLACK KNIGHTSARMY
11-17 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
BLACK KNIGHTS
100%
MIDSHIPMEN
--
BLACK KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARMY +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)
NAVY By 1-7 points
26.8%
NAVY By 8-14 points
24.3%
ARMY By 1-7 points
16.9%
ARMY By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Navy
80
NAVY
Army
74
ARMY
Simulated Score
Navy
65
NAVY
Army
68
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Midshipmen
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Black Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Black Knights (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Black Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NAVY @ ARMY
81 - 63
Jan 24, 2026
ARMY @ NAVY
56 - 84
Feb 15, 2025
ARMY @ NAVY
54 - 61
Jan 26, 2025
NAVY @ ARMY
66 - 53
Feb 10, 2024
NAVY @ ARMY
67 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.5% more
Navy: 3.5
vs
Army: 1.6
Steals (L5)
+30.9% more
Navy: 9.4
vs
Army: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+23.8% more
Navy: 18.7
vs
Army: 14.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.9% more
Navy: 37.9
vs
Army: 33.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score
80.0
81
ARMY Score
74.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 36.0
29.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.2 / 18.7
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.5
0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 48.5
38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
73.9 / 76.5
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 37.9
24.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.4
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 10.5
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
ARMY
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
Advantage
20-11-1
(64.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
ARMY
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.3
ARMY
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
NAVY
ARMY
NAVY
ML
44%
14-18
79%
26-7
50%
16-16
55%
18-15
ATS
44%
14-18
73%
24-9
50%
16-16
55%
18-15
TTL
81%
26-6
73%
24-9
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
